I generally think the opposite of your thinking. I prefer to watch a game and not have to worry about every missed shot or stress out every time a runner comes home....then again I usually don't watch the games I have $$ on just because of that. The results will be the same whether I'm swearing at the TV or not.
I don't like playing totals. If you have the over, you pretty much need BOTH teams to cooperate. That's never a good bet in my opinion. The under seems more reasonable except for the fact that you can't count it until the games over. I've seen NFL teams score 24 points after the 2 minute warning. I only play totals if I'm looking for some cheap TV action to cover my drinks when I'm slumming, and thats only if I couldn't settle on a side.
Most people I know play far more sides than totals (appx 70/30). The two teams are trying to win the game, as opposed to scoring x amount of points is one way to look at it. Totals can be tricky, the books have trouble with them in the NBA especially in the early part of the season. In the NBA I focus a lot of attention on how the pace of the game should go given the two teams playing styles. I am not strong at all on MLB totals, I havent devoted the required time to them yet. On totals in any league my advice would be to lean to the under the majority of the time. The public is usually on the over and the line is shaded that way quite a bit. Also, it is easier for nothing to happen than for something to happen (scoring-wise). The last statement is difficult to explain and I'm not sure if it makes sense to others, but it is more improbable than probable for a score to take place. I followed line movements in the NBA on totals for a while, and usually moves of 1.5 points or more are the correct side, especially in the early part of the season. Seemed to work in the NFL as well, but the sample size was smaller. Keep in mind that 'usually' means about 55% to 58%, and there were a lot of extreme peaks and valleys (1-8 days, 8-1 days in the NBA).
I play probably 85% totals and 15% sides.
The percentage is about the same for all sports that I wager on, except for soccer.
Did I get more comfortable with totals than with the sides over the time, I don't know, but generaly speaking I find it easier to predict.
By the way, 90% of my totals are unders and only 10% overs. That doesn't mean that unders are always the right play, but the overs do not have a whole lot of value in majority of cases.
Due to public perception and expectations the totals are often well inflated, especially in nba and nfl.
The percentage is about the same for all sports that I wager on, except for soccer.
Did I get more comfortable with totals than with the sides over the time, I don't know, but generaly speaking I find it easier to predict.
By the way, 90% of my totals are unders and only 10% overs. That doesn't mean that unders are always the right play, but the overs do not have a whole lot of value in majority of cases.
Due to public perception and expectations the totals are often well inflated, especially in nba and nfl.
I use my own computer model to project a final scores, and I use it religiously to play sides but I've found it doesn't work at all with totals. It probably hits around 48%, not even enough to reverse it and cover the juice. I only need my teams to function according to form for a certain portion of a game to realize the point spread, but you need a steady rate of point production to converge to the total. That scoring rate can be influenced by the coaches, for example, who might shift away from their passing game after establishing a lead to work the clock. It's like ATX said, the teams are trying to win the game, not work the total.
I only use the puter model in the NFL so I only know my numbers for that sport. I can see how the shot clock in the NBA would be favorable to totals but I don't play the NBA. I imagine that college hoops and football totals would suffer from coaching input. Baseball's so wierd that nothing applies.
What really busts my balls is when you see a powerhouse offense take the Rams for instance, going against an all round mediocre team & the total jumps out at you at say (42), hell you say this is to damn good to be true, the stinking Rams will probably hang 40 points on them alone so you hit the over on the game. Final score is Rams 31-10. You lose by a single point or two because the other team didn't cooperate. Fvck totals!
